CFR.org | Japan’s New Leader Faces Old Problems with China and South Korea

Shinzo Abe took the helm from Junichiro Koizumi in September as Japanese prime minister during a period of chilling relations with Beijing and Seoul, due to China and South Korea’s memory of brutal Japanese aggression in the region during the decades leading up to Hiroshima. Koizumi's official visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors several Class A war criminals along with about 2.5 million war casualties, had revived memories of Japan's World War Two-era brutalities in China and South Korea. In recent months, then–cabinet chief Abe’s emergence as the favored candidate for the premiership by the governing Liberal Democratic Party did little to calm Chinese and South Korean fears. The right-leaning leader has been unapologetic about his country’s history, and he supported the revision of Japan’s pacifist constitution. Also, he has not concealed his affection for his deceased grandfather Nobusuke Kishi, a Japanese prime minister after the war, in spite of a war crime indictment. But experts say that the North Korean nuclear test announcement, which came within weeks of Abe taking office, presented the three countries with an opportunity to forge common ground in handling the crisis. Abe's first official visits, to Seoul and Beijing, prompted hopes that he would bring a new commitment to improving relations with Japan's important neighbors.

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CFR.org | UN Debates Disciplining North Korea

Days after North Korea’s underground nuclear test announcement, disagreement continues over how to contain the regime’s weapons ambitions. The test has met worldwide condemnation, but has mired the UN Security Council in debate over how far to go in punishing Pyongyang (FT). President Bush threatened “serious repercussions” and Japan already imposed harsh sanctions (Japan Times), including bans on Pyongyang’s imports and travel. North Korea’s other neighbors are treading more carefully. South Korea is grappling with internal political divisions (IHT) over whether to back a UN draft resolution proposed by the United States. The resolution, which recommends stiff sanctions, could lead to military action by invoking Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. It is meeting resistance (Reuters) from North Korea’s strongest ally, China, although Beijing earlier called for punitive actions against its neighbor. The BBC provides a roundup of where world powers stand on the North Korea crisis.

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CFR.org | North Korea Faces Sanctions

North Korea’s announcement that it conducted a successful underground nuclear test has set off a scramble to contain the regime’s weapons ambitions and steady global nerves (FT) over the detonation. Concern was such that even Pyongyang’s top ally, sanctions-averse China, believes “there has to be some punitive actions" (Reuters) taken by the UN Security Council. The list of sanctions proposed by the United States would cut off trade (WashPost) in all materials that could be used to make weapons of mass destruction and any financial transactions that could support such a program. The Security Council, though united in condemnation, faces intense negotiations about how tough it should be, even as doubts linger over whether the blast was nuclear (WashTimes).

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CFR.org | Samore: China 'Most Important Asset' for U.S. in Handling North Korean Threat

The United States responded sternly this week to the Pyongyang nuclear test threat, saying a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable. But Gary S. Samore, CFR’s director of studies, says Kim Jung-Il sees Washington in a vulnerable position because of U.S. preoccupation with events in the Middle East. Samore, a former National Security Council staffer and nonproliferation expert, says “the most important asset the United States has is to work with China” to defuse the crisis and Pyongyang considers Beijing and Seoul the bigger players in negotiations because their aid sustains an increasingly isolated North Korea.

North Korea this week upped the ante by saying that it will conduct nuclear tests on an undisclosed date in the future. During the Clinton administration you helped negotiate the 1994 Agreed Framework with the goal of reigning in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Do you think similar negotiations could work to end the current standoff?

I don’t think North Korea’s prepared to give up its nuclear capabilities under any conditions, so the best you could do through a negotiation would be to limit North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, in terms of the number of nuclear weapons it has, and perhaps some limits on its delivery capability. But in terms of actually achieving disarmament, I think that’s no longer possible.

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CFR.org | Nuclear Rumblings from N. Korea

World leaders condemned a North Korean nuclear test threat (Reuters Video), which Pyongyang claims is necessary in the face of U.S. hostility. A government statement did not disclose a date for what would be Pyongyang’s first known nuclear test, but said North Korea was compelled to follow through (Yonhap) with the test because of the “U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure.” Christopher Hill, the top U.S. State Deparment official on Asia-Pacific relations, gave Pyongyang a stern warning: “We are not going to live with a nuclear North Korea, we are not going to accept it.” The White House said a test would threaten East Asian security and that the United States will work with the UN Security Council and Six-Party Talk members to oppose Pyongyang’s “provocative announcement.” In 2005, North Korea walked away from talks with the United States, Japan, China, Russia, and South Korea and has refused to return to the negotiating table because of U.S. financial restrictions, specifically a clampdown on Pyongyang’s alleged counterfeiting activities (NYT).

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CFR.org | U.S.-South Korea: Uneasy Allies

With South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun’s visiting the White House this week with President Bush, some commentators say the longstanding alliance between the two nations needs mending. The two sides agreed in advance of the meeting not to issue (Korea Times) any joint declarations at the conclusion of summit, but they did concur on the importance of Six-Party Talks with North Korea, transferring control of their combined forces, and forging a trade deal. So far, Washington and Seoul have made little progress in their proposed bilateral free trade agreement (Seattle Times), which would be the most far-reaching trade deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement. Another thorny issue involves the timing for the United States to hand over wartime control of U.S.-South Korean combined forces (Stars and Stripes).

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CFR.org | Turkey-Europe: The Widening Gap

The possibility of Turkish EU accession appears increasingly uncertain. In recent weeks, European leaders have voiced unease over Ankara’s membership bid, citing concerns over Turkey’s infringement on freedom of expression and its embargo on Cypriot ships and planes (AP), the latter a manifestation of a long-standing dispute over division of the Aegean Sea with Greece. Some EU members, including France and Germany, have suggested Turkey seek “privileged partnership” rather than full membership. Olli Rehn, commissioner of EU enlargement, opposed this idea, but warned the Turkish accession process that began in October 2005 has been slowed by Ankara’s failure to repeal Article 301, which gives the government free reign to arrest journalists and activists for disparaging Turkey. In an interview with the BBC, EU President Jose Manuel Barroso said it could take twenty years for Turkey to become a member nation.

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CFR.org | Like Old Times in Bangkok

Thai general Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, who led a swift coup in Bangkok on Tuesday, said the military had seized power to end the turmoil under Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's leadership (Australian). During a press conference, Sonthi said a new prime minister would be installed within two weeks to lead the country until elections are held in October 2007 (FT). Meanwhile King Bhumibol, who has been placed at the nation's helm, endorsed the coup, and the ousted Thaksin, in New York for the UN General Assembly, made plans to travel to London (AP). The Bangkok Post offers a timeline of recent developments, and a Q&A by the BBC discusses the coup's impact. 

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CFR.org | Sri Lankan War Comes Roaring Back

Escalating violence between the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tiger separatist group threatens to end the shaky 2002 cease-fire and spark another round in a brutal civil war that has caused 65,000 deaths. S.P. Tamilselvan, a leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) called the army’s recent occupation of the formerly Tiger-dominated northeastern city of Sampur a violation of the truce, saying the Tamil populations are in “misery” and warned the Sinhala population, who make up three quarters of Sri Lanka’s 19 million people, that they “face the same fate in the future.” (The Hindu). The terrorist organization, which is known for recruiting child soldiers and pioneering the use of suicide bombings as a terror tactic, has proven a resilient foe for the Sri Lankan military over the course of more than two decades, as this new Backgrounder explains. But the Christian Science Monitor reports that the Tigers are weakened by a breakaway faction, waning support from the minority Tamil population, and the recent crackdown on LTTE operatives in the United States.

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CFR.org | Remembering 'Forgotten' Diseases

New epidemics such as avian flu and Severe Acute Respiratory System have captured media attention in recent years, but more familiar infectious diseases continue to persevere and, in some cases, resurge. Take the case of polio, targeted for eradication by the largest public health initiative in history. When the campaign began in 1988, more than a thousand children a day were infected by the disease. By 2003 the case count had dropped to fewer than 800 a year. But the incidence of polio has been slowly increasing, with over 1,000 cases reported so far this year. More than 200 cases have been reported in India, up from sixty-six last year, and there are concerns the disease may go global after the Indian strain showed up in Nepal, Bangladesh, Angola, Namibia, and Congo (IHT). 

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CFR.org | Chinese Train Carries Controversy

With much fanfare, China opened the world's highest railroad (AP) connecting Beijing with the Tibetan capital of Lhasa, on July 1, the Chinese Communist Party anniversary. An engineering feat, the high-tech train reaches heights of more than 16,500 feet and carries passengers in sealed cars pumped with oxygen across the frozen Himalayas. But two months after its inauguration, the train is already experiencing trouble. Cracks have appeared in concrete bridges and the railbed is proving unstable in certain areas (RFE/RL); one passenger has already died from altitude sickness (The Standard).

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CFR.org | Japan's History Test

Imperial visits to the controversial Yasukuni memorial stopped almost thirty years ago. A 1988 memorandum, leaked last month, revealed that the late Japanese Emperor Hirohito ended his visits after the enshrinement of war criminals at the memorial in 1978. "That is why I've since stopped visiting. That is how I feel in my heart," said Hirohito (Yomiuri). But the imperial memo hasn't stopped Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi from making another annual visit to the shrine (The Age)—which honors 2.5 million war dead along with more than a thousand war criminals—on the August 15 anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender. The visit drew immediate condemnation from China and South Korea (ChiTrib). 

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CFR.org | Feldman: Guantanamo Detainees May be Difficult to Try, Depending on Hamdan Ruling

President George W. Bush, during a recent interview with the German ARD television network, said he "would like to end Guantanamo." But, he said, closing the facility depends on the Supreme Court's upcoming ruling in Hamdan v. Rumsfeld, which will determine whether detainees should be subject to civil or military trials. The case arose in 2004 after an indicted detainee—a Yemeni national and former driver of Osama bin Laden—Salim Ahmed Hamdan, challenged the legality of the military tribunals trying him.

CFR Adjunct Fellow Noah Feldman, author of After Jihad and a law professor at New York University, discusses the legal issues at stake in the Hamdan decision, expected in late June. He says the case will decide whether military tribunals are constitutionally sufficient and warns that if the Supreme Court rules current trial procedures inadequate, it may be difficult to try many of the nearly 500 Guantanamo detainees because "much of the evidence—all of the evidence, in some cases—is gleaned from procedures that would not be admissible in ordinary courts."

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CFR.org | Still Open for Business

Four years after U.S. officials began detaining "unlawful enemy combatants" at a camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, steady international calls to close the center have failed to budge Washington. The UN Committee Against Torture weighed in this week with a report on the issue. Opponents of the detention camp, where nearly 500 people are still held without formal charges, may have been hopeful after U.S. President George W. Bush recently told German television: "I very much would like to end Guantanamo; I very much would like to get people to a court." Bush said closing the camp depends on whether the Supreme Court decides that detainees will be tried in civilian courts or by military tribunals. That ruling is expected in June in the Hamdan v. Rumsfeld case, discussed in this CFR Backgrounder. 

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CFR.org | Backgrounder: Bolivia's Nationalization of Oil and Gas

On his hundredth day in office, Bolivian President Evo Morales moved to nationalize his nation's oil and gas reserves, ordering the military to occupy Bolivia's gas fields and giving foreign investors a six-month deadline to comply with demands or leave. The May 1 directive set off tensions in the region and beyond, particularly for foreign investors in Brazil, Spain, and Argentina. Morales' nationalization agenda has been described as another chapter in Latin America's turn to the left, and fears are rising that the Bolivian leader has fallen into the fold of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and Cuba's Fidel Castro. But some experts emphasize there may be more infighting than cohesion overall in the region.

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CFR.org/NYTimes.com | Bolivia’s Nationalization of Oil and Gas

On his hundredth day in office, Bolivian President Evo Morales moved to nationalize his nation’s oil and gas reserves, ordering the military to occupy Bolivia’s gas fields and giving foreign investors a six-month deadline to comply with demands or leave. The May 1 directive set off tensions in the region and beyond, particularly for foreign investors in Brazil, Spain, and Argentina. Morales’ nationalization agenda has been described as another chapter in Latin America’s turn to the left, and fears are rising that the Bolivian leader has fallen into the fold of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro. But some experts emphasize there may be more infighting than cohesion overall in the region.

Read the full article at CFR.org.

CFR.org | Violence After Darfur Deal

Arab militias known as Janjaweed have terrorized Darfur's African civilians with the backing of Sudan's government since 2003, despite international clamor against what the U.S. government and human rights groups call genocide. Peace negotiations between the Sudanese government and rebels teetered on the brink of collapse for nearly a week until Friday morning, when the Sudanese government and Sudanese Liberation Movement—the largest rebel faction—agreed to a deal called "a shaky foundation" by the Financial Times. The pact, which rebel leaders agreed to "with reservations," was brokered by U.S., British, and African Union (AU) mediators, including U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who rushed to the talks in Abuja, Nigeria after the sides failed to meet an April 30 deadline (AllAfrica.com). The history and main players of the Darfur crisis are explained in this CFR Background Q&A.

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CFR.org/NYTimes.com | Darfur: Crisis Continues

Three years after government-backed Arab militias known as "Janjaweed" began burning villages and conducting large-scale massacres in the Darfur region, the Sudanese authorities and rebel forces are moving at a painfully slow rate toward peace. In the meantime, a situation the U.S. State Department has called "genocide" has left some 2 million people displaced and hundreds of thousands dead. A well-meaning but ill-conceived peacekeeping mission by the African Union has failed to stop the massacres and destruction of villages. Now the UN Security Council, in spite of reluctance on the part of China and Russia, is calling for greater UN and NATO involvement in the crisis, against the wishes of the government in Khartoum.

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CFR.org | Backgrounder: Pakistan’s Political Future

Since taking control in a bloodless 1999 coup, General Pervez Musharraf has held on to power for nearly eight years, making him one of the most longstanding leaders in Pakistan’s sixty-year history. He won a flawed 2002 presidential election, according to EU monitors, and also maintained control of the country’s military by remaining army chief. As his five-year term nears its October 2007 end, Musharraf says he needs to remain in office to follow through on initiatives begun during his presidency. However, as a series of domestic crises threatens his authority, opposition leaders question whether Musharraf should remain army chief if he gains reelection. Meanwhile, former Pakistani leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, both in exile, clamor for political support from their consituents at home. As the election nears, questions arise over Pakistan’s political future—with or without Musharraf. Futhermore, the U.S.-Pakistani alliance appears to be weakening as the Musharraf government continues to fail in its efforts to curb Taliban and al-Qaeda activities in the country’s northwest tribal areas.

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Co-authored by Carin Zissis and Greg Bruno

CFR.org | Chad's Oil Troubles

The oil pipeline agreement involving the World Bank, a U.S.-led oil consortium, and the government of Chad was hailed as a model to help developing nations dig their way out of poverty and avoid corruption. Under the deal, spurred by World Bank funding, most of Chad's revenues would go toward development projects. But in December, Chad's parliament voted to modify the agreement, canceling a "future generations" fund for Chad's post-oil future, and diverting funds away from poverty alleviation and toward the purchasing of arms. The World Bank responded by suspending its loans and freezing Chad's assets. A temporary agreement was reached April 27, but experts say potential civil war, cross-border troubles with Sudan, and the weakening of President Idriss Déby's regime may threaten the pipeline deal, casting further doubt on the prospects for transparency in future development projects in the region.

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