AS/COA Online | Colombian and Ecuadorian Relations on the Mend?

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A year and a half after relations between Ecuador and Colombia took a nosedive, progress may be underway toward repairing ties. Last month, high-level officials met with the goal of pushing forward steps to rebuild broken diplomatic ties. Then, at the end of September, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa said the two governments were working to restore bilateral trust. His Colombian counterpart Álvaro Uribe echoed those sentiments Wednesday ahead of an October 9 meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers. The thaw comes as Bogota announced it would share information about camps run by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on Ecuadorian soil. “Let them tell us where they are and we’ll catch them,” responded Correa.
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AS/COA Online | Honduran Impasse Stirs up Differences in Washington

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More than two weeks after a surprise return to Honduras, deposed leader Manuela Zelaya remains confined in the Brazilian Embassy. A much-maligned emergency decree declared by interim leader Roberto Micheletti came and went, and the stand-off continues. While tensions simmer between Hondurans for and against Zelaya, Democrat and Republican lawmakers are locked in their own tit-for-tat over the U.S. role in Tegucigalpa standoff. An Organization of American States (OAS) delegation arrives in Honduras on October 7 to mediate in the three-month-old dispute over who should govern the country, raising questions about whether this group of mediators can succeed where other have failed.

In a dispatch, Reuters photojournalist Edgard Garrido describes the current scene inside the embassy compound, where he is confined with Zelaya supporters, a handful of journalists, and the ousted leader. The unlikely residents face food shortages, tear-gas fears, and concerns about what comes next. “With both sides so far apart, it's not at all clear when there will be an end to the crisis, or my unusual and uncomfortable assignment,” writes Garrido, who snapped a widely circulated photograph of Zelaya napping on an embassy sofa.
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AS/COA Online | Rio Wins Battle over Olympics Bid

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Candidate countries made their cases and the die has been cast: Rio de Janeiro will host the 2016 Summer Olympics, making it the first South American city to host the Games. As the clock counted down to the October 2 announcement, competition grew between two contenders in the Western Hemisphere, Chicago and Rio.

Vying cities sent top leaders—including U.S. President Barack Obama and his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—to stump for the International Olympics Committee (IOC) in Copenhagen Friday. But, in the end, Obama's home city was the first eliminated. "Chicago's marketing muscle clearly was no match for the sentimental sway of Rio," said Milwaukee's Journal-Sentinal in an article accompanied by an image that shows the disappointed faces of Chicagoans. Tokyo was the next city counted out, leaving Madrid and Rio in the running. The Brazilian city was declared the resolute winner, pulling in 66 IOC votes to Madrid's 32.
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AS/COA Online | Counting the Costs of the Honduran Coup

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The Honduran de facto government found itself even more isolated September 3 when Washington terminated over $30 million in aid to the Central American country. The State Department had temporarily suspended aid after the June 28 coup when the military forced President Manuel Zelaya out of the country. The agency’s decision came as the deposed leader met with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington last week to make his case for stepped-up pressure on the interim government, headed by Roberto Micheletti. In return, the State Department announced not only the end of non-humanitarian aid, but also that it would revoke visas for some members of Micheletti’s regime and refuse to recognize upcoming elections if carried out by the de facto government.
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CFR.org | Backgrounder: The Six-Party Talks on North Korea's Nuclear Program

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The Six-Party Talks are aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear program through a negotiating process involving China, the United States, North and South Korea, Japan, and Russia. Since the talks began in August 2003, the negotiations have been bedeviled by diplomatic standoffs among individual Six-Party member states--particularly between the United States and North Korea. In April 2009, North Korea quit the talks and announced that it would reverse the ongoing disablement process called for under the Six-Party agreements and restart its Yongbyon nuclear facilities. Because Pyongyang appears intent on maintaining its nuclear program, some experts are pessimistic the talks can achieve anything beyond managing the North Korean threat. The Obama administration has been pursuing talks with the other four countries in the process to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiation table. Alongside the United Nations' effort to sanction North Korea's nuclear and missile tests, "this regional partnership between the United States and the countries of Northeast Asia remains the best vehicle ... for building stable relationships on and around the Korean peninsula," writes CFR's Sheila Smith.

Read the full text.

Co-authored by Jayshree Bajoria and Carin Zissis

AS/COA Online | Interview: Petrobras CEO José Sergio Gabrielli on Brazil's Energy Outlook

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"[W]e are far and ahead of almost all countries in the world in the use of renewable sources of energy right now."
In an exclusive interview, Petrobras CEO and President José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo talked with AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis about Brazil as one of the world’s top oil and ethanol producers, his firm’s business plan, and global partnerships. In the last case, that includes recent energy deals forged with China and both opportunities and hurdles for the U.S.-Brazilian ethanol cooperation. “Brazil is a possible substitute for other sources that today provide oil to the United States,” said Gabrielli.

AS/COA Online: Brazil plans to follow a Norwegian model for auctioning concessions in its offshore pre-salt oil fields, including creation of a 100 percent state-owned company. Can you talk about this and Petrobras’ involvement?
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AS/COA Online | Interview: OAS Secretary General Insulza on the Promise of the Fifth Summit

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"[T]he summit involves a big, clear promise and we hope that we can live up to it."

Secretary-General of the Organization of American States (OAS) José Miguel Insulza joined AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis for an exclusive interview about the recent Summit of the Americas, from the process of negotiating hemispheric mandates to the upcoming OAS General Assembly. Insulza also talks about his position on a 1962 resolution that ejected Havana as an OAS member state: “Everybody says that if we repeal the resolution that means that the next day Cuba is back in the OAS. I don’t think that’s what anybody wants, starting with Cuba.”

AS/COA Online: Let's talk about the recent Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago. While progress was made during the summit, there has been a lot of discussion around the process of creating and approving the declaration.

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AS/COA Online | Amb. Jeffrey Davidow on Expectations for the Summit of the Americas

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"[T]he president will go there with a strong trade message and a strong anti-protectionism message."


In an exclusive interview, White House Advisor for the Summit of the Americas Jeffrey Davidow speaks with AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis about expectations for the summit in Port of Spain on April 17 through 19. The Obama administration will seek to build on the hemisphere’s past decade of accomplishments through a “real focus on exchanging ideas, techniques, and best practices,” said Davidow. The ambassador offers insight into top issues on the agenda, from trade to energy to public safety. Davidow served as a U.S. ambassador to Mexico and to Venezuela. He also held the position of Assistant Secretary for Inter-American Affairs under the Clinton administration.

AS/COA Online: The global economy will be the Summit of the Americas’ focal point. With the G20 members wrapping up their meeting, what kind of groundwork do you see has been laid in advance for the summit in Trinidad and Tobago?

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AS/COA Online | Interview: Dr. Thomas Dillehay on Moon Tears: Mapuche Art and Cosmology

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“[O]ne of the elements of their culture that has helped the Mapuche to survive, even today as well, is their strong commitment to their cosmology and religion.”


Dr. Thomas D. Dillehay, a distinguished professor of anthropology at Vanderbilt University and Professor Extroardinaire at the Universidad de Chile, talks with AS/COA Online about the objects featured in Moon Tears: Mapuche Art and Cosmology from the Domeyko Cassel Collection—the exhibition featured at the Americas Society. In a interview about how the history and rituals of Chile’s largest indigenous group are reflected in the exhibition, Dillehay emphasizes the ways that the Mapuche create linkages with their ancestors through ritual as well as some of the changes that have occurred in Mapuche communities over time.

In the late 1970s and 1980s, Dr. Dillehay directed excavations in Monte Verde, Chile, which included human artifacts dated at more than 12,500 years old. The discovery fundamentally changed migration theories of the Americas. He has authored 15 books, among them the award-winning 2007 publication Monuments, Empires and Resistance, as well as more than 200 refereed journal articles.

AS/COA Online: The exhibition covers three areas: contact, conquest, and political organization. How are these themes significant in the relation to the Mapuche and the exhibition?

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AS/COA Online | Interview: Patrick Esteruelas on Venezuela's Oil-Based Economy

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“As much as a victory would buy Chávez a new lease on life, a defeat could end up being the most costly policy mistake he’s made in over ten years in office.”


In an AS/COA interview, Patrick Esteruelas, a specialist in the Andean region with Eurasia Group’s Latin America practice, about the effects of the dropping price of oil on Venezuela’s economy.  “Venezuela can count on a sizeable cushion of reserves and foreign exchange liquid assets to help it ride the current economic down cycle,” he tells AS/COA Online's Managing Editor Carin Zissis. “But not for very long.” Esteruelas also talks about the reasons behind President Hugo Chávez's decision to hold a referendum on the elimination of presidential term limits in February.

AS/COA Online: Speculation has mounted that, with the sharp drop in the price of oil, Venezuela’s economy could be under serious threat. Yet some argue that country’s economy stands well-girded because of the high oil prices in recent years. What do you make of this debate and what are the economic outcomes Venezuela faces as a result of the oil price drop?

Esteruelas: I would say that Venezuela can count on a sizeable cushion of reserves and foreign exchange liquid assets to help it ride the current economic down cycle. But not for very long. By all accounts, Venezuela is destroying assets much more quickly than it’s been building them, given today’s oil prices. The country has somewhere around $60 billion in foreign exchange liquid assets, which include just shy of $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves, just shy of $20 billion in the foreign exchange development fund, and then the rest equitably split along the discretionary government funds and cash dollars held by PDVSA [Petróleos de Venezuela].

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AS/COA Online | James Bacchus Urges Obama to Work with Trade Partners in the Americas

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“[Obama] needs to explain to the American people that trade is an indispensable part of any economic recovery we hope to have.”
In an exclusive interview with AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis, former U.S. Representative James Bacchus (D-FL) discusses AS/COA’s new Trade Advisory Group report and the need for the Obama administration “to come forward with some evidence that the United States is willing to work on a hemispheric basis.” Bacchus, who is a leader of Greenberg Traurig’s worldwide practice, served on the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization. He urges approval of pending trade agreements with Panama and Colombia.
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CFR.org | Backgrounder: Terror Groups in India

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India has long suffered violence from extremist attacks based on separatist and secessionist movements, as well as ideological disagreements. In particular, the territorial dispute over India-controlled Kashmir is believed to have fueled large-scale terrorist attacks, such as the bombings of a Mumbai commuter railway in July 2006 as well as a deadly explosion on an India-Pakistan train line in February 2007. Kashmir-related terrorist violence draws international concerns about its possible link in a chain of transnational Islamist militarism. The terrorist assault on Mumbai's hotel district on November 26, claimed by a previously unknown group calling itself the Deccan Mujahadeen, appears to confirm a disturbing new turn of events domestically. Recently, a group calling itself the Indian mujahadeen joined the roster of terror forces, claiming responsibility for a series of blasts in November 2007 in the state of Uttar Pradesh and 2008 attacks in the Indian cities of New Delhi, Jaipur and Ahmedabad. Their relationship with the new Deccan Mujahadeen group remains unclear. India also faces another extremist threat: A Maoist insurgency by violent revolutionaries called "Naxalites" has emerged across a broad swathe of central India - nicknamed the "red corridor" - to claim a growing number of lives.

Read the full text.

AS/COA Online | Interview: Leopoldo López on Venezuela's Political Alternative

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“We are an alternative in terms of presenting solutions for poverty and for public safety, which are the main issues that Venezuelans need to have addressed by their government.”

Leopoldo López Mendoza, mayor of the Chacao municipality of Caracas, was a frontrunner in the race for the mayoralty of the Venezuelan capital until he, along with hundreds of other opposition candidates, was banned from running in November municipal elections. In an exclusive interview with AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis, López talks about the questionable legality of the ban and the threat it poses to democracy in Venezuela. López, who won 81 percent of votes when he ran for reelection for his current post in 2004, says inequality and public security serve as Venezuela’s main challenges.

AS/COA: Venezuela’s electoral council barred hundreds of mostly opposition candidates from running in the November municipal election on the basis of unproven corruption charges. You’ve been prohibited from running for the mayoral post of Caracas. Given the current block against your candidacy, what are your short-term political goals?

López: The first goal is to help promote the candidates that can run and to promote possible victories in municipalities and governorships in this upcoming elections.
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CFR.org | Backgrounder: The Role of the UN Secretary-General

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Former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan left a mixed legacy after two terms as the organization's chief executive, ending in 2006. Annan garnered a Nobel Prize for encouraging global cooperation on peace, launched unprecedented investigations into UN peacekeeping and security, and set about reforming bodies like the UN Human Rights Commission. Yet his critics also saw a failure in Annan's inability to do more to end abuses in Sudan's Darfur region, his handling of relations with the United States, and his management of the UN's Oil-for-Food program in Iraq. Annan's replacement, Ban Ki-moon, has made climate change and AIDS themes of his term. The differences between Annan's and Ban's leadership styles in many ways point to the ambiguous nature of the secretary-general position itself—a role bifurcated, often unevenly, between the tasks of "secretary" and "general."

Read the full text.

Co-authored by Carin Zissis and Lauren Vriens

CFR.org | Backgrounder: The Muslim Insurgency in Southern Thailand

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Over the past four years, an insurgency in Thailand's southern, predominantly Muslim provinces has claimed nearly three thousand lives. The separatist violence in these majority Malay Muslim provinces has a history traceable back for more than half a century. Some experts say brutal counterinsurgency tactics by successive governments in Bangkok have worsened the situation. Political turmoil in Bangkok and tussle between supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the country's military have further contributed to the instability, working to stymie any serious initiatives for a long-term solution to the crisis.

Read the full text.

Co-authored by Jayshree Bajoria and Carin Zissis

AS/COA Online | Interview: U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Clifford Sobel on Bilateral Partnerships

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[W]e have a lot of very fertile areas where we look for partnership and for growth in our economic, investment, and cultural institutions."

In an exclusive interview, U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Clifford M. Sobel speaks with AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis about opportunities to build U.S.-Brazilian partnerships in areas ranging from energy to security. At a time when biofuels production faces charges of pushing up food production, the two countries can share technology and engage in research exchanges to turn waste into energy resources, says Sobel. The ambassador also describes the goals of the U.S.-Brazil CEO Forum, efforts to ease visa requirements, and strides in connecting Brazilian cities with American cities through direct flights.

AS/COA: In what ways do you see current economic and political factors converging to support opportunities for U.S.-Brazilian partnerships?
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AS/COA Online | Interview: Jair Ribeiro on Model for Adopting, Improving Brazilian Schools

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“[E]ach school is different from the other and requires a different set of solutions.”

CPM Braxis CEO Jair Ribeiro, in an interview with AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis, discusses Partners in Education (Parceiros Da Educação), a program he established in São Paulo to match executives with schools—particularly in poor and underserved areas—to improve teacher training and boost students’ test scores. The program has proven to show marked results in the “adopted” schools. As the model developed by Partners in Education evolves and improves, executives from across Brazil approached the organization about adopting the model in other parts of the country.

AS/COA: Can you tell me a little bit about the history of Partners in Education and how and why you started it?
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CFR.org / washingtonpost.com - Backgrounder: China’s Environmental Crisis

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China's heady economic growth continued to blossom in 2007, with the country's gross domestic product (GDP) hitting 11.4 percent. This booming economy, however, has come alongside an environmental crisis. Sixteen of the world's twenty most polluted cities are in China. To many, Beijing's pledge to host a "Green Olympics" in the summer of 2008 signaled the country's willingness to address its environmental problems. Experts say the Chinese government has made serious efforts to clean up and achieved many of the bid commitments. However, an environmentally sustainable growth rate remains a serious challenge for the country.

Read the full article at washingtonpost.com.

Co-authored by Jayshree Bajoria and Carin Zissis

AS/COA Online - Interview: FIU's Eduardo Gamarra on Bolivian President Evo Morales' "Riskless" Recall Vote

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“[T]he point is that the president is risking very little and the prefects have much to lose.”
 
In an interview with AS/COA Managing Editor Carin Zissis, Director of Florida International University’s Latin American and Caribbean Center and Bolivia expert Eduardo Gamarra discusses the complex series of referenda taking place in Bolivia. Earlier this summer, four Bolivian departments held votes supporting autonomy; on August 10, in a public referendum, voters will decide whether the president and several governors retain their positions; and a vote on the controversial new constitution is expected within the next year and a half. Gamarra explains what is behind not only the deep political and regional divisions affecting the country, but also the questionable legitimacy of some of the votes and demonstrations. Speaking about Sunday’s election, Gamarra comments that, “The president is basically running a riskless election.”
 
AS/COA: Bolivia is holding a referendum in August 10 in which the voters will decide whether the president, the vice president, and most departmental governors will stay in office. How does this recall vote work and does President Evo Morales face any real possibility of losing office?
 
Gamarra: Perhaps I better start by answering the last part. The president is basically running a riskless election. In fact, it is a referendum that can only work in his favor. Now, having said that, at the same time the governors or the prefects—as a result of the autonomy referendums they’re now known as governors—have more to lose than the president and largely because the way in which the law that convokes the referendum is written. To lose, the president needs the majority of people to vote against him. To lose, the prefects do not need a majority; a simple minority could end their terms. The president would then have the right to name the successor rather than calling for a new election. In the case that the president loses, there’s a need for an immediate call for a new round of elections. It is relatively complicated but the point is that the president is risking very little and the prefects have much to lose.
 
AS/COA: So, just to understand this clearly, the prefects can lose by a minority vote?
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AS/COA Online - Interview: Helio Mattar, President of the Akatu Institute for Conscious Consumption on Corporate Social Responsibility in Brazil

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“When we talk about CSR we are talking about the collective interest of society; we are talking about returns to stakeholders, not only returns to shareholders.”


Brazil’s Helio Mattar, who serves as the president of the Akatu Institute for Conscious Consumption and founded the Ethos Institute for Social Responsibility talks with AS/COA Online Managing Editor Carin Zissis about the strength of the corporate social responsibility movement (CSR) in Brazil and across the Americas. Mattar, a leading expert in the field of CSR, discusses the factors behind Brazil’s prominent CSR movement and the need for companies to remain accountable to consumers. A former CEO and government minister, Mattar outlines essential evolution for companies must undertake to maximize the capacity of CSR efforts. “[W]e’ve changed the level of consciousness in the market, and companies will have to change the level of action that they will have in social and environmental areas,” says Mattar, who served as a moderator of an AS/COA roundtable on CSR during AS/COA’s annual Latin American Cities Conference in São Paulo, Brazil in July 2008.

AS/COA: Across Latin America, according to Akatú’s research, 50 to 80 percent of consumers have an interest in what companies are doing in terms of corporate social responsibility. The rate is particularly high in Brazil.

Mattar: It is. It has been between 75 and 78 percent in the last seven years.

AS/COA: What are the factors behind this high rate of interest in CSR in Brazil?

Mattar: I think there is one attribute, which it is not Brazilian. I am totally convinced that mass communication, Internet all over the place, and telecommunications all over the place means that people are becoming more and more sensitive to social and environmental issues.
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