AS/COA Online | Election Guide: Mexico's 2012 Vote

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On July 1, nearly 80 million Mexicans will be eligible to vote in elections that could be a game changer for the country. The National Action Party (PAN) has held the presidency since 2000, when the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) finally lost its seven-decade-long power grip. Now the PRI may be poised for a return, given that from the beginning of the campaigns, PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto has polled as the frontrunner. But the race isn’t over yet. The portion of undecided voters remains in the double digits and Peña Nieto’s poll lead over second-place Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) has narrowed as the voting day nears.

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Quick Facts

The 2012 Mexican presidential election is July 1 and the winner will assume office on December 1. By law, Mexican presidents are restricted to one six-year term, known as a sexenio. Unlike in much of Latin America, there are no runoff elections in Mexico. The candidate who wins the largest number of votes on July 1 will replace President Felipe Calderón, who took office in 2006.

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AS/COA Online | Exclusive Interview: Juan Carlos Rulfo and Daniela Alatorre on the Making of ¡De Panzazo!

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As the documentary ¡De Panzazo! explains, Mexico is the OECD member that spends the most on education in terms of public spending, yet its education system ranks last in terms of quality. ¡De Panzazo! (Barely Passing) director Juan Carlos Rulfo and producer Daniela Alatorre spoke with AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis after the film’s New York premiere on June 4 at Americas Society. With the support of civil society group Mexicanos Primero, the documentary calls for quality education and teacher evaluations in Mexico. Rulfo and Alatorre explain how they became involved in the project, involving Mexican students in the film’s production, the need to share best educational practices on an international level, and the impact of the film during a Mexican election year.

AS/COA Online: As the film implies, Mexico’s educational challenges have a long history. What sparked the making of the film now?
 
Alatorre: So this was a process of three years. Mexicanos Primero had been working at least for three years, so that makes it six now. And they thought they needed to do something big that could talk to a broader audience. And so they talked to [Mexican news anchor] Carlos Loret. Then they said: “Why don’t we do a series of TV shows?”
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AS/COA Online | Youth Protests Seek to Stir up Mexican Presidential Race

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(co-authored with Mark Keller)

Throughout the Mexican electoral race, not much has succeeded in moving the needle when it comes to the frontrunner’s commanding poll lead. Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Enrique Peña Nieto’s lead continues to hover in the double digits, as it did at the official start of the campaign in March. But a student movement, dubbed #YoSoy132, emerged in recent weeks to shake up the election, protesting what appears to be an inevitable return to a presidency by the PRI—the party that held control of the presidency for seven decades before the National Action Party (PAN) victory in 2000. In particular, the protesters contend that Mexico’s top media outlets favor Peña Nieto. Opinions diverge on the movement, with some viewing it as an optimistic sign that young voters are shaking off political apathy. But others argue the movement’s support base hails from the left-leaning Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), whose candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly known as AMLO) refused to concede loss during the last presidential election. Across the spectrum, many question whether it can have an impact on the outcome of the July 1 presidential vote, given that voter support for Peña currently stands at 46 percent—more than 20 points higher than either AMLO or PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota.

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AS/COA Online | Interview: Mexican Undersecretary for Foreign Relations Lourdes Aranda

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Mexican Undersecretary for Foreign Relations Lourdes Aranda discusses her country’s role as this year’s G20 host. Aranda, who serves as a G20 representative, explained why Mexico's role in guiding the G20 agenda toward achieving goals in the areas of green growth, food security, and economic stability.

Video edited by David Gacs.

AS/COA Online | Capriles Wins Venezuelan Primary to Become Chávez's Challenger

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Henrique Capriles Radonski won Venezuela’s opposition primary on February 12, making him the top contender in the race against President Hugo Chávez. Capriles, governor of the state of Miranda, pulled in 1.8 million of the 2.9 million votes cast. He will serve as the nominee of the Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD), an alliance of opposition parties formed to more effectively compete with Chávez’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela. A former legislator, Capriles faced four other candidates but faced his greatest competition from Pablo Pérez, governor of Zulia state. Another candidate, Leopoldo López, dropped out of the race on January 24 and put his support behind the frontrunner, giving Capriles a last-minute boost. In hopes of overcoming past electoral setbacks, MUD candidates signed a September 2011 pact agreeing to back the primary winner to avoid possible splintering of the opposition vote in the October 7 election. The MUD also agreed to a unified platform last month, pledging to combat the country’s violent crime problem, engage in democratic reconstruction, and pursue a sustainable economic model. AS/COA’s Rachel Glickhouse and Guillermo Zubillaga note in an election overview that the February 12 vote “test[s] the momentum of support for the opposition coalition before the general election.” Can Capriles, backed by a unified opposition, compete with the loquacious, long-governing Chávez?

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AS/COA Online | Pérez Molina Takes the Helm in Guatemala

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For the first time since Guatemala’s return to democracy, an ex-general took the presidential helm on January 14. “Change has arrived,” said new President Otto Pérez Molina during his inauguration. He also acknowledged that he enters office at a time when the country faces “many problems and enormous challenges.” Pérez Molina of the Patriotic Party won a November runoff election with the promise of a mano dura—or iron fist—to fight criminality and rein in the country’s high murder rate. His inaugural speech urged Mexico, Central America, Colombia, and particularly the United States to step up cooperation in the fight against organized crime. Guatemala’s high poverty rate and economic concerns will be crucial issues for the administration as well. But, with over two-thirds of Guatemalans viewing violence as the country’s top problem, combating crime will be at the top of Pérez Molina’s agenda. How will he balance these challenges with his military past?

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AS/COA Online | Mexico's Electoral Race Takes Shape

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As Mexican President Felipe Calderón nears his final year in office, candidates are already lining up at the gate for the 2012 presidential race. On Sunday, current poll frontrunner and ex-Governor of the State of Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto registered as the official candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). This move came two weeks after the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) picked 2006 losing presidential candidate and former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador to compete again. Presidents can’t seek reelection in Mexico and the governing National Action Party (PAN) slated its primary for February. Some observers say that flagging support for the current administration coupled with the PAN’s delay in naming a candidate could hurt the conservative party’s chances. Still, campaigns don’t officially get underway until March and, though Peña Nieto polls over 20 points ahead of other candidates, it’s a long race before the country’s three main parties cross the finish line on July 1, 2012.

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AS/COA Online - Colombia Takes out Top FARC Leader Alfonso Cano

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The Colombian military took out a series of top guerrilla leaders in the past few years, but yesterday’s assassination of Alfonso Cano marked the first time the government either caught or killed the top leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Born Guillermo León Sáenz but known most commonly by his FARC battle name, Cano died in a bombing raid carried out in the Cauca province, according to official reports. Rumors of his death began to swirl in the afternoon of November 4, but it wasn’t until the early hours of the following morning—after official reports that Cano’s identity was confirmed through fingerprints—that President Juan Manuel Santos delivered remarks announcing the death. “I want to send a message to each and every member of this organization: demobilize,” said Santos in the televised address. “Because if you don't, as we've said so many times and as we've shown, you will end up in jail or in a tomb.” Still, the president warned against celebrating victory until peace breaks through the struggle against the guerrillas that’s now over four decades old. The FARC has seen its numbers dwindle, and much of its leadership crushed. So how much closer does Cano’s death bring the conflict to a close?
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AS/COA Online Exclusive Interview: Costa Rica’s Education Minister Leonardo Garnier on Innovations in Teaching

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“[T]he central strategy we have followed is not just to have more students, but to offer a more relevant, significant education.”


Costa Rica’s high literacy rate has long made its educational system the envy of the Americas. Still, high school enrollment and access to higher education remain tough challenges in the Central American country. Costa Rican Education Minister Leonardo Garnier spoke with AS/COA Online’s Editor-in-Chief Carin Zissis, not only about how his country is fighting dropout rates, but also how new teaching approaches and technology can play a role in boosting education. Garnier says that changes underway offer “more relevant, more significant, and more entertaining education so that kids will stay in high school—but they will stay for a good reason, not just for staying there.”

AS/COA Online: With a 96 percent literacy rate, one of Latin America’s highest, many see Costa Rica’s education system as a model for other countries in the region. What models in other parts of the world do you look to for inspiration and ideas?

Garnier: Well, I don’t see Costa Rica as a model. I think we have done some things that have been useful for us, but still, we have a lot of problems. When we look at other countries, for example, the things that small countries like Finland have done with education, certainly there is big room for improvement in our system.

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AS/COA Online - Widespread Voiding of Ballots Marks Bolivia's First Judicial Vote

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Bolivia’s Sunday judicial elections marked a couple of firsts. Not only did Bolivian voters turn out in the country’s first public vote for top judicial posts, but the large-scale voiding of ballots appears to be the first electoral rebuff of President Evo Morales since his 2005 presidential victory. Morales hailed the election and massive turnout as important for democracy and to the validity of the country’s latest Constitution, approved by referendum in 2009. Official results from Sunday’s vote won’t be released until October 29, but polling firm Ipsos Apoyo estimated that over 45 percent of voters voided their ballots while some 20 percent left ballots blank. Some saw the results as a rebuke against Morales, with the opposition saying the election signaled a win for its side. Still, many observers say the vote is the latest indication of Morales’ slumping approval figures, torpedoed by continued protests over his government’s backing of a transoceanic highway through the Isiboro-Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPNIS).
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AS/COA Online - Venezuelan Opposition to Back one Candidate against Chávez

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There may be a year to go before Venezuelans head to the ballot box for the next presidential vote, but the election is already kicking into high gear. On Monday, opposition leaders in the Coalition for Democratic Unity (MUD) signed a deal agreeing to back one candidate to face current President Hugo Chávez on October 7, 2012. “We the signatories of this agreement unanimously support the candidate who is elected in a February 12 primary as the single candidate of the Democratic Unity coalition,” reads the pact. The deal was signed within days of Leopoldo López—banned in 2008 from competing for Caracas’ mayoralty seat—announcing his presidential bid. Should the Supreme Court allow him to run, López would compete against a number of candidates for the primary seat, including polling favorite and Miranda state Governor Henrique Capriles. The primary winner is slated to compete against the cancer-stricken Chávez, whose approval ratings hover around 50 percent, as he seeks a third six-year term.
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AS/COA Online - Guatemala Readies for Vote after Troubled Campaign Cycle

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He may not win in the first round, but Otto Pérez Molina polls well ahead of other contenders in the race for Guatemala’s presidency. As the Central American country prepares for a September 11 presidential and legislative vote, a poll published September 7 by Borge and Associates and Guatemalan daily El Periódico gives the Patriotic Party (PP) candidate 48.9 percent of voter intention—a 30 percent advantage over his top rival, Manuel Baldizón of the Renewed Democratic Freedom (Líder) party. The poll puts Pérez Molina short of the requisite 50 percent plus one vote needed to avoid a November 6 runoff. No candidate has won during the first-round vote since Guatemala implemented a two-round system in 1985, though nearly all Guatemala’s first-round winners have gone on to win runoffs. Still, observers see Pérez Molina’s expansive poll lead as stemming, in part, from the lack of a governing-party candidate and they lament that the electoral process has been marred by campaign-finance irregularities, as well as violence.

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AS/COA Online - Brazilian Corruption Crackdown Causes More Ministerial Shakeups

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Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff may be learning that fighting crime doesn’t come easy. Her efforts to root out political corruption have caused a string of cabinet shakeups. This week brought more woes, with Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi becoming the third of Rousseff’s ministers to step down amid corruption allegations and the fourth to leave his post since Rousseff took office just over seven months ago. Despite her attempts to cut unnecessary spending and select senior officials based on merit rather than political connections, she has seen public approval fall six points since March to 67 percent. That figure would undoubtedly make many heads of state around the world jealous, but disapproval also doubled to 25 percent while the approval rating for her government slipped from 56 to 48 percent. Moreover, Rousseff’s corruption crackdown is sparking a rebellion in the coalition that includes her Worker’s Party (PT), which could lead to legislative roadblocks. As The Economist put it: “Brazil’s president may find that the price of trying to clean up politics involves forgoing reforms the country needs.”

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AS/COA Online - Peru's Humala Picks Moderates for Top Cabinet Posts

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With a week to go before Ollanta Humala’s inauguration, some observers still wonder which way the next Peruvian president’s political winds will blow. Will the former military-officer-turned-nationalist politician follow the lead of Venezuela’s expropriating President Hugo Chávez or the more moderate ex-leader of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva? For those seeking clues in Humala’s cabinet picks, he appears to not only opt for the second path but also follow in some of the same footsteps as current President Alan García. A day after Humala won the June 5 runoff vote, Peru’s stock market plunged 12.5 percent. But after Humala began making cabinet announcements this week, the Financial Times wrote of “renewed optimism over Peru’s investment climate.” Still, given the tumble Humala’s approval ratings have taken since the election, will the Peruvian public follow suit and support their new president after he takes office July 28?

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AS/COA Online - New U.S. Measures Seek to Stem Arms Trafficking into Mexico

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The Obama administration announced Monday new rules requiring increased reporting about semi-automatic weapons sales in Southwest border states. Firearms dealers in Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas will be required to report when making a sale, within five business days, of more than one semiautomatic rifle greater than .22 caliber and with detachable magazines. Such weapons include AK-47s U.S. Department of Justice Deputy Attorney General James Cole heralded the new rules as a tool for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) “to help confront the problem of illegal gun trafficking into Mexico and along the Southwest Border.” But the new rules could force the White House into a legal tussle with the National Rifle Association (NRA), an organization dedicated to gun ownership rights. The move also comes amid a simmering scandal over the ATF’s botched gun-tracing operation dubbed “Fast and Furious” that allowed U.S. weapons to fall into the hands of Mexican drug gangs.

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AS/COA Online - President-elect Humala and His Path for Peru

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All the ballots have been counted, but the jury is still out about which path Ollanta Humala will take when he becomes president of Peru next month. As AS/COA’s Christopher Sabatini put it: “The election guessing game in Peru has ended and now the Humala guessing game has begun.” Throughout Humala’s tight race against conservative Keiko Fujimori and in the wake of the June 5 runoff, observers have repeatedly speculated about whether the former military officer would model himself after Venezuela’s expropriating President Hugo Chávez or take the more moderate course of Brazilian ex-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Humala’s cabinet picks will help shape the answer to the “Chávez or Lula” question, but Vice President-elect Marisol Espinoza says those won’t be announced before July 10. So what steps has Humala taken thus far to indicate which way he’ll go?
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AS/COA Online - After Tight Race, Humala Wins Peruvian Runoff Vote

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After a neck-and-neck race, Ollanta Humala edged out Keiko Fujimori to win the June 5 runoff vote for Peru’s presidency. With over 88 percent of votes tallied on the morning of June 6, Humala had won 51.27 percent of the vote against Fujimori’s 48. 5 percent. Though Fujimori carried Lima, Humala won in a majority of Peru’s regions. A retired military officer, he spent much of his candidacy trying to shake off comparisons with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and replace them with the more centrist model of ex-President of Brazil Inácio Lula da Silva. But his opponent had ghosts of her own; Keiko Fujimori, an ex-legislator, is the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori—now serving time for corruption and human rights abuses carried out under his watch. To some degree, both candidates can thank the centrist candidates in April’s first-round election for dividing the centrist-voter block, thereby letting the left-leaning Humala and the conservative Fujimori advance (Humala won the first round with 31.7 percent against Fujimori’s 23.6 percent). When he takes office next month, Humala faces the challenge of reuniting a country split by a divisive presidential race.

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